98 Seaside Loop
$118,400 / yr verified
+8% vs listing claim
201 Gulf Dune Ct
$92,100 / yr verified
-14% vs listing claim
17 Sunfish Way
$78,200 / yr verified
-29% vs listing claim
344 Dune Ridge Dr
$124,800 / yr verified
+3% vs listing claim
55 Longleaf Pine St
$88,600 / yr verified
-9% vs listing claim
Subject Property
Verified Revenue ↑
Minor Gap
Significant Gap
5 Nearest Comps · 400m Radius · Keydata Verified
| Property | Dist | Bd | Listing Claim | Verified Rev | Gap | Rental |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
98 Seaside Loop |
180m |
4 | $109,600 | $118,400 | +8% | ✓ Active |
344 Dune Ridge Dr |
220m |
4 | $121,200 | $124,800 | +3% | ✓ Active |
55 Longleaf Pine St |
290m |
4 | $97,400 | $88,600 | −9% | ✓ Active |
201 Gulf Dune Ct |
310m |
5 | $107,100 | $92,100 | −14% | ✓ Active |
17 Sunfish Way |
390m |
4 | $110,200 | $78,200 | −29% | ⚠ Inactive |
Revenue Concentration Risk
Trailing 12 months · Keydata
⚠ Concentration Risk: 61% of verified comparable revenue occurs in June–August. A poor summer season, hurricane disruption, or late booking year compresses annual returns significantly. The listing agent's pro-forma uses peak-season occupancy rates applied year-round — a methodology that overstates annual revenue by an estimated 22–28%.
Intelligence Flags
Pro-Forma Revenue Inflation — High Confidence
Listing agent claims $138,000 annual STR revenue. Keydata 365-day trailing average for 4BR comparables within 400m is $100,420. Estimated gap: $37,580 (27%). Inflated figure appears to apply summer ADR of $485/night to 285 nights — actual blended ADR for this comp set is $312/night at 71% annual occupancy.
SOURCE: Keydata trailing 12mo · 5 comps · Verified Feb 2026
HOA Fee Not Disclosed in Listing
Naturewalk at Seagrove HOA carries monthly fees of $485/mo ($5,820/yr). This figure is absent from the seller's operating expense sheet. Including it drops the stated cap rate from 6.8% to 5.9% — moving it from "good" to "borderline" territory by standard underwriting benchmarks.
SOURCE: Walton County Records · HOA disclosure docs
Coastal Insurance Estimate Understated
Listing pro-forma uses $8,400/yr for insurance. Post-2022 coastal Florida market for this property profile runs $14,000–$18,500/yr. Using midpoint ($16,250) adds $7,850 to annual expenses versus stated figure.
SOURCE: Florida OIR rate data · Comparable policy benchmarks 2025
STR Permitted — Walton County Unincorporated
Property falls within Walton County unincorporated jurisdiction. No occupancy caps. No rental frequency limits. No pending ordinance changes as of Feb 2026. MLS field confirmed: Rental Allowed — No Restrictions.
SOURCE: Walton County GIS · MLS data field · Verified Feb 2026
Location Premium Confirmed — 0.3mi Gulf Access
Properties within 0.4 miles of Gulf access on 30A average 38% higher RevPAR than inland comparables in the same zip code. This property's location justifies a premium over zip-code average estimates used by national tools like AirDNA.
SOURCE: Keydata micro-zone analysis · 30A coastal band data